Many flu experts are very alarmed that the H1N1 swine flu virus was found in turkeys on farms in Chile just last week. Now that it has been confirmed that birds can contract H1N1 as well as H5N1, some health authorities are now wondering if birds may serve as a sort of "mixing bowl" where a "super bird flu" may develop.
The reality is that various strains of the flu can mix together in a process that scientists call genetic reassortment or recombination.
So is something like this likely to happen?
Well, so far there are no reports of H5N1 circulating among turkeys in Chile, but in southeast Asia there have been huge problems with the bird flu virus circulating in poultry.
So what will happen if the swine flu does start circulating among the same flocks where the bird flu is already circulating?
Yi Guan is the world famous virologist at Hong Kong University that isolated the SARS virus in 2003, and his thoughts on what would happen during just such a scenario are downright chilling.
Guan told Science Insider that if the quickly spreading H1N1 virus mixed with the incredibly deadly H5N1 virus and a new strain with both of those qualities developed it would be an absolute nightmare: "If that happens, I will retire immediately and lock myself in the P3 lab. H5N1 kills half the people it infects."
The following is a very revealing excerpt from that chilling interview.....
Q: Is it surprising how quickly H1N1 adapted?
Y.G.: All viruses, after interspecies transmission, will evolve fast. But why this H1N1 could become successful at efficient human-to-human transmission is still unknown. We have a knowledge gap about how influenza A viruses build up their pandemicity in humans. As swine H1N1 has being circulating in pigs since 1918, it has accumulated [many] differences from human H1N1 virus. So, for human beings, it looks like a novel subtype, as most human individuals lack immunity to this swine-like H1N1. This is one of the most important conditions for pandemic emergence. Whether the novel virus will develop into a more virulent strain—just like the Spanish flu did in the fall of 1918 to kill more people—we still don't have any idea.
Q: It depends on further mutations?
Y.G.: It depends on mutations and whether the virus further reassorts with other viruses—like H5N1. That could be a super nightmare for the whole world.
Q: You’re talking about the Armageddon virus?
Y.G.: The chance is very, very low that these two viruses will mix together, but we cannot rule out the possibility. Now, H5N1 is in more than 60 countries. It’s a panzootic, present everywhere except North America.
Q: If the nightmare comes true?
Y.G.: If that happens, I will retire immediately and lock myself in the P3 lab. H5N1 kills half the people it infects. Even if you inject yourself with a vaccine, it may be too late. Maybe in just a couple hours it takes your life.
When a top virologist starts using language like this, it is time to sit up and take note.
The truth is that right now the "swine flu" is just not that dangerous. A few thousand people around the world have died, but that is simply not that uncommon.
But what happens if the very rapidly spreading swine flu combines with the incredibly deadly bird flu virus?
What would happen if tens of millions of people around the world started catching a flu virus that spreads like wildfire and that kills a very high percentage of the people that catch it?
Fortunately the world is not facing such a situation.
Yet.
But for now, the swine flu virus continues to spread around the globe at unprecedented speed.
WHO Director General Margaret Chan told France’s Le Monde that this virus is spreading so fast that it is shocking global health officials: "This virus travels at an unbelievable, almost unheard of speed."
U.S. health authorities are certainly anticipating a very busy flu season, and they are working hard to get their message out through as many news outlets as possible.
Perhaps in an effort to ease fears, ABC News just released an article with this provocative headline: In a Flu Pandemic, What Can the Government Do to You?
Of course ABC News tells us that there is nothing to worry about and that there will not be mandatory vaccinations. But so many Americans are now so concerned about the swine flu vaccine that it has gotten their attention. Just check out the following rather stunning paragraph from the ABC News story:
The worst-case scenarios percolate on the edges of thought: bans on public gatherings, restricting the movement of afflicted individuals, and compelled vaccinations. Conspiracy theorists go farther, suggesting that the World Health Organization is behind a secret plan to inoculate Americans at gunpoint with immune-system depleting vaccines to depopulate the globe.
For ABC News to even acknowledge that some Americans believe there might be sinister motives behind the swine flu vaccination program is absolutely stunning. Normally mainstream media outlets such as ABC News will do anything and everything that they can to avoid reporting on these kinds of viewpoints.
But the reality is that we live in very unusual times. Will the swine flu vaccine end up being very dangerous just as it was in 1976? Will the swine flu mix with the bird flu and become a "super bird flu" that will end up killing millions? Or is all of this fuss just for nothing?
As is that case with so many things, only time will tell.....
